Vehicles sit in traffic in Hanoi on Sept. 11. North Korea could learn much from Vietnam, a communist country whose embrace of free-market reforms over the past
several decades has lifted its per capita income from less than $95 in 1990 to $2,342 in 2017. | BLOOMBERG
The choice facing Kim at the Hanoi summit is the same as it’s always been: weapons or wealth. The United States has long offered North Korea a chance to
develop its moribund economy in exchange for abandoning its nuclear program. Trump is so confident Kim will finally accept that he recently tweeted “North Korea will become a kind of
Rocket — an Economic one!”
Like his father and predecessor, though, Kim has so far left the deal on the table. Clearly he’s worried about losing his iron grip on the country if it
opens up to the outside world. Moreover, it’s not entirely clear that the model of export-driven growth that Vietnam and other Asian tiger economies followed can work for the North, given
the current rollback of free trade.
Vietnam’s experience, even more so than the famous example of China’s “reform and opening up,” would address both these concerns. Like China and fellow
tigers Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea, Vietnam has posted an impressive record of growth since launching its “doi moi” reforms in the 1980s, lifting national income per
capita from less than $95 in 1990 to $2,342 in 2017. Like China and Singapore, it’s managed to do so while maintaining firm one-party control over the political system and avoiding
political and social unrest.
Uniquely, though, Vietnam could also show Kim how opening up could actually bolster his regime’s strength. At the moment North Korea, shunned by much of the
world, is almost entirely dependent on its gargantuan neighbor and ally, China. Vietnam has been able to translate reform into strategic independence by balancing improved ties to the
U.S. against China’s unavoidable economic influence. More of its exports go to the U.S. than China, while Japan, South Korea and Germany are also important customers. That’s allowed
Vietnam some room to push back against China, for instance, on its incursions into the South China Sea.
Even more, Vietnam proves that the old Asian development model can still work. The country has skillfully enlarged its role in the global economy even as
globalization has retreated. Exports expanded to more than 100 percent of national output in 2017 from about 70 percent a decade earlier. The secret has been an aggressive pro-trade
policy that’s propelled Vietnam into numerous free-trade agreements, including the revamped Trans-Pacific Partnership. That, combined with an improving business environment and low costs,
has made Vietnam a sound alternative to China for labor-intensive manufacturing, such as apparel and mobile phones.
A low-wage North Korea could readily achieve the same. It might even have an edge over Vietnam in attracting such factories, given that its neighbors China,
Japan and South Korea share a keen interest in ensuring Kim’s reforms work.
Most of all, Vietnam highlights the true lesson of Asia’s record of modernization: Any poor economy, no matter what its history and cultural background, can
alleviate poverty and industrialize with the right mix of policies.
Looking back at the assorted tiger economies, they had little in common. Vietnam was a communist country only recently free of war; Singapore a tiny trading
entrepot; South Korea a rump of a former monarchy; Indonesia a mish-mash of disparate tropical islands. Nevertheless, all achieved spectacular rates of growth over extended periods of
time by capitalizing on their comparative advantages in the global trading system and promoting private enterprise.
That doesn’t mean they all copied the same development strategy. Each country adapted the basic principles to its own particular characteristics and
conditions. Vietnam had to transition from a planned to a market economy; South Korea counted on heavy dose of state guidance; the colonial administration in Hong Kong did little beyond
stay out of the way.
North Korea will have to find its own route, too, based on its own (and often bizarre) history. For instance, North Korea has been far more isolated for far
longer than Vietnam was prior to its doi moi reforms, which could make integrating into the world economy more difficult. Kim would also have to overcome his country’s contentious record
with foreign companies, especially after freezing the assets of those operating in the Kaesong Industrial Complex in 2016.
The most critical challenge, of course, is getting sanctions lifted. Without that, any hope of following Vietnam is a fantasy. Kim needs to make a
calculation that development is more important than maintaining a nuclear deterrent.
Scholar John Delury believes he wishes to be his country’s Deng Xiaoping — the strongman who unleashed an economic miracle. Others proffer evidence that Kim
has already overseen a sizable shift toward a more free-market economy (even if not officially acknowledged). But he has yet to make a decisive break favoring butter over guns. We’ll see
if Vietnam changes his mind.
Michael Schuman is the author of ‘The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia’s Quest for Wealth’ and ‘Confucius and the World He Created.’
ASIA PASIPIC/POLITICS ANALISIS
Ahead of Trump-Kim summit, focus shifts from immediate denuclearization to longer-term approach
Ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi on Feb. 27 and 28, more than eight months
after their landmark summit in Singapore, diplomats from both sides were set to begin a second round of talks this week to reach an agreement.
Until recently, the two sides had made little progress in narrowing the glaring gaps in their interpretations of the vaguely worded document that emerged from
the Singapore meeting. In that declaration, the U.S. committed to security guarantees for the Kim regime and the North pledged “to work toward the denuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula.”
But in recent weeks there have been growing signs that the Trump administration and the Kim regime can find middle ground — including hints that both sides are
willing to take a fresh look at their relationship — in what would be an extended denuclearization process.
“I believe it is safe to say that the Trump administration is in hypothesis-testing mode, which is the right way to go about it,” said Philip Yun, executive
director at the Ploughshares Fund in San Francisco and a member of the U.S. government working group that managed American policy and negotiations with North Korea under then-President Bill
Clinton.
“The administration is hopeful that … Kim Jong Un’s desire to have a new relationship is genuine, but the negotiations are now all about testing that hypothesis
in a credible way,” Yun said.
A shift in rhetoric
Stephen Biegun | REUTERS
While Trump has long spoken glowingly of his personal ties to Kim, a flurry of recent statements and remarks by U.S. top officials playing up the prospects of
peace — including from the president himself — are more indicative of the White House’s shift from its insistence on a maximalist outcome — “the final, fully verified denuclearization of
North Korea” first and foremost — to a more flexible approach.
This shift was on full display Tuesday, when Trump said he is “in no rush” and has no pressing time schedule for Pyongyang to ultimately denuclearize, “as long
as there is no testing” of nuclear bombs or missiles.
Trump has also appeared to relish taking up the mantle of peacemaker — a far cry from his “fire and fury” rhetoric of 2017, speaking of “a bold new diplomacy”
and a “historic push for peace on the Korean Peninsula” during his Feb. 5 State of the Union address. That speech was followed days later by a tweet voicing anticipation of “advancing the
cause of peace.”
Frank Aum, a former senior Pentagon adviser on North Korea now with the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, also pointed to public statements of
support for the diplomatic push by the current and former commanders of U.S. forces in South Korea. That support comes even as Trump has suspended joint military exercises and continues to
weigh halting others.
“Former USFK commander Vincent Brooks and the current USFK commander Robert Abrams have both emphasized that while the suspension of major joint military
exercises has caused some degradation to military readiness, this risk is worth taking if it creates an opportunity for the diplomatic process to advance,” Aum said.
In particular, Aum noted that Brooks has continued to make similar remarks even after he left his post, “which suggests that it’s his sincere personal position
rather than a cautious toeing of the administration line.”
However, it was U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun who appeared to set the tone for the administration’s evolving stance with a Jan. 31
speech at Stanford University in
California.
In it, Biegun said the U.S. is “prepared to discuss many actions that could help build trust … and advance further progress in parallel on the Singapore summit
objectives of transforming relations, establishing a permanent peace regime on the peninsula and complete denuclearization.”
But Biegun’s most important point, which came during questioning after the speech, may have been the revelation of a major shift in the U.S. negotiating
position — that Washington will “engage diplomatically with North Korea to see if we can change the trajectory of their policies by changing the trajectory of our own.”
This shift was highlighted Tuesday by State Department Deputy Spokesman Robert Palladino, who spoke of “a top-down approach” to the Hanoi summit “that, if
successful, could fundamentally transform relations.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with a delegation that visited the United States, in Pyongyang, in this photo released on Jan. 23. | REUTERS
A ‘new’ era of relations
According to Yun, the top U.S. envoy’s speech was rich in symbolism and had a specific audience.
“I believe that Steve Biegun was very conscious of where he made his first public speech,” he said. “If you read the speech, it was as much for the North
Koreans as it was for the U.S. audience.”
Yun, who traveled to Pyongyang in 1999 with a delegation led by former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, cited the opening, which focused on “the notion
that North Korea and the U.S. both bear responsibility for the state of past relations,” and noted the setting, Stanford — the first stop North Korean then-Vice Marshall Jo Myong Rok made
during his historic trip to Washington in 2000, when relations were also taking a dramatic turn for the better.
Taken together, these clues appear to suggest that the White House’s stance may have shifted to accepting that peace and that a new relationship could underpin
any real denuclearization agreement.
“I do think the administration, if we are to believe Biegun’s assertion that the U.S. is committed to ‘simultaneous’ and ‘parallel’ discussions on
denuclearization and peace, has offered a radical shift in how it has approached North Korea over the last 30 years,” said Aum.
For their part, the North Koreans have also maintained that they are sincere in their intent to forge a “new” era of relations with the U.S. — so long as any
agreement to do so is equitable in their minds.
In his annual New Year’s address, Kim hailed the Singapore summit, which he said “brought about a dramatic turn” in ties, and voiced hope that improved
relations “will bear good fruit this year.” He also urged “corresponding practical actions” by the U.S. in response to earlier moves by the North, including the destruction of its main
nuclear test site and a de facto moratorium on missile and atomic tests. Doing so, he said, could see “more definite and epochal measures” from Pyongyang.
Will history repeat itself?
Critics, however, have alluded to Pyongyang’s long history repeating itself, pointing to cycles of inertia followed by rays of hope and then disappointment —
often after it welched on an agreement.
Daniel Pinkston, a professor of international relations and North Korea expert at the Seoul campus of Troy University, said that while a shift in North Korean
policy would be welcomed, “any change in trajectory that would include denuclearization would require a revolutionary change in the party’s ideology and identity, and the leadership’s world
view.
“Is that impossible? No, but it’s very unlikely under the current situation,” he said, adding that even “if that were to occur, there would be several
indications, and we would know almost immediately.”
Others, meanwhile, have warned of Trump being played by Kim.
“Trump has gone from ‘Veni, vidi, vici’ to ‘Well, maybe,'” said Sung-Yoon Lee, a Korea expert at The Fletcher School at Tufts University in the U.S. “Why?
Because Kim played on his impulse to make history and is now trapped in a labyrinthine process of negotiations during which Kim buys more time and money to perfect his nuclear posture.
“Trump can’t admit he was duped, so the charade must go on,” he said.
But the Ploughshares Fund’s Yun, while retaining a degree of skepticism, said it is noteworthy that Kim has directly expressed his views. This fact, he said,
means the U.S. has a chance to see if he will make good on his offer.
“There is a sense that Kim is indeed talking — underscore talking — about a fundamentally different relationship with the U.S.,” Yun said. “This is huge,
because Kim is in reality the only person who matters in North Korea on these issues; so having an opportunity to explore his intent directly and to construct a series of ‘tests’ to reconfirm
that intent is a big deal. No one knows what North Korea’s intent truly is, but now we can find out.”
Lowering the temperature
Although Kim has also threatened “a new way” of striking back if the U.S. backslides on what he views as promises made in Singapore, some experts say he has
indeed made good — at least somewhat — on what was agreed to in June.
“Contrary to what we have heard in the media, North Korea has actually halted and rolled back some nuclear activities, with the most important being the end of
nuclear and missile testing — which, in turn, has significant consequences,” Siegfried Hecker, a former director of the U.S. Los Alamos weapons laboratory in New Mexico who is now at
Stanford, said in an interview
earlier this month.
Hecker, who has visited the North multiple times and made international headlines after his last trip in November 2010, when he announced that the country had
built a modern uranium enrichment facility, prescribed in May a decadelong framework for denuclearization based around a “halt, roll back and eliminate” process. That framework was updated
this month.
The update noted that “although North Korea continued to produce fissile materials with which it could build more bombs, it took demonstrable steps to lower the
threat it poses,” Hecker told The Japan Times.
“It is generally not recognized that Kim Jong Un said he has ‘ended’ nuclear and long-range missile testing rather than just observing a moratorium,” Hecker
said. “A complete end to such testing is a very big deal. … It more than offsets the continued fissile materials production.”
He said that, at this point in North Korea’s missile program, some key weapons — including the intercontinental ballistic missiles that could target the U.S.
and the shorter-range solid-fueled and submarine-launched weapons that could hit Japan — remain “very much in the developmental stage.”
“They require testing to put into service,” he said. “Likewise, more nuclear tests would be required, in my opinion, to field a hydrogen bomb and to make
nuclear warheads small and light enough, and robust to survive ICBM delivery.”
Peace declaration in the cards
With U.S. and North Korean officials meeting in Asia this week, the negotiations are expected to test just how much each side is willing to bend — and these
signals point to a willingness by both, experts believe.
But the ball is in Trump’s court as to whether he will agree to follow through on trust-building measures that could lay the foundation for a long-term
denuclearization road map.
“The central question moving forward isn’t whether Kim is willing to give up his nuclear weapons; rather it’s whether the United States and North Korea can
transform their relationship to a point where Kim and his elites begin to believe their regime can survive without nuclear weapons,” David Kim, a former State Department nonproliferation and
East Asia desk official, wrote in an essay on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists website last week.
Kim told The Japan Times that a step in this direction could be made by the U.S. offering up a so-called peace declaration. Unlike a formal peace treaty, an
end-of-war declaration is a legally nonbinding document and would not involve hard-fought negotiations and would represent a symbolic end to the 1950-53 Korean War, which was halted only with
an armistice.
That declaration could serve as a preliminary security guarantee, or litmus test, to see how serious the North is about denuclearizing.
“It would be a symbolic commitment to the world that the U.S. and North Korea are interested in fundamentally transforming their relationship, which is the
first and most important clause in the Singapore joint statement,” Kim said.
“You can’t get to real denuclearization unless Kim can assure his elites at home that a threat no longer exists,” he added. “I think a peace declaration can
help shift the threat narrative within the regime. As a confidence-building measure, a declaration — in exchange for concrete measures toward denuclearization — can set the mechanism in place
for a formal peace treaty.”
However, Tuft’s Lee cautioned that while “‘peace’ sounds hypnotically alluring … history is full of fake peace deals that only brought war.”
Actual peace, he said, has been maintained on the Korean Peninsula since 1953 by virtue of mutual deterrence.
“Any ‘peace agreement’ will have consequences, as North Korea demands, in the name of furthering peace and reconciliation,” he said.
These would likely include the dismantlement of the U.N. Command, U.S. Forces Korea, U.S. Forces Japan and the isolation of Seoul, Lee added.
“No genuine ‘peace’ or ‘denuclearization’ can be achieved with a North Korea that is not open and free,” he said.
A golden opportunity?
Despite these criticisms, there are increasing signs that Washington has already put such a declaration on the negotiating table, including Biegun’s remarks
that Trump “is convinced that it’s time to move past 70 years of war and hostility on the Korean Peninsula” and that “there is no reason for this conflict to persist any longer.”
This message has apparently been conveyed to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who said last week that the two sides have “had a lot of talks about” a peace declaration and security mechanisms,
and that those conversations would continue in this week’s talks, as well as between Kim and Trump in Hanoi.
Observers say that a declaration, perhaps as part of a package of inducements and concessions from both sides, could give negotiators fresh momentum and a new
avenue to pursue peace and, ultimately, denuclearization on the peninsula.
North Korea watchers “have been arguing among themselves” for nearly 30 years “what North Korea’s intent is,” Yun said.
“Now, with direct talks with Kim, we finally have the chance to find out,” he said. “This is a huge opportunity, not to be wasted; or left to assumptions, which
could very well be outdated.”
AP ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA -
Rika Kihira was steadfast that she was going to land a triple axel at the Four Continents Championships.
She didn’t land it during the short program and found herself in fifth place going into Friday night’s free skate. She successfully nailed it on her first jump
and put together a flawless four-minute program set to “Beautiful Storm” by Jennifer Thomas.
“I was hardly able to practice my triple axel in this rink but I was determined, very focused and kept my concentration,” Kihira said.
Kihira scored 153.14 points in the free skate and finished with 221.99 points, easily outdistancing Kazakhstan’s Elizabet Tursynbaeva by more than 14 points.
Her triple axel earned 10.51 points but she also had a pair of combinations that scored well — triple lutz/triple toe loop combination (11.95) and triple lutz/double toe loop-double loop
(11.39).
“I was able to leave yesterday’s mistake behind. During this season, I learned how to keep my concentration in my free skating no matter what happens in my
short program,” said Kihira, who won the Grand Prix Final earlier this season.
Tursynbaeva — who had 139.37 points in the free skate and 207.46 overall — said she didn’t expect to be on the podium. She wasn’t the only one who was
surprised. She had planned to do a triple lutz on her opening jump, but instead attempted a quad salchow. She got all four rotations in but was unable to land it cleanly.
“I’m happy I attempted it and will keep trying until I land it. I started working on the jump in 2016 but only started putting it in my program a couple weeks
ago,” she said. “I will have the same programs at worlds, so I will keep working on the programs, I want to do better next time and will try the quad again.”
Mai Mihara (207.12) placed third after being in eighth after the short program, and defending champion Kaori Sakamoto (206.79) was fourth.
Americans Bradie Tennell and Mariah Bell were in the top three after the short program but struggled. Tennell (202.07) was the leader after the short program,
but made an error on a triple lutz/triple toe loop combination, underrotated two other jumps and finished fifth.
“I have been hitting it every time all week, the only place I’ve been missing it is in competition so it’s very frustrating,” Tennell said.
Kihira bounced back from her second-place finish at the Japan Championships in December to re-establish herself as the favorite for the world
title next month in Saitama. Despite landing just one triple axel, the 16-year-old still scored a comfortable victory over Kazakhstan’s Elizabet Tursynbaeva, who came in
second.
Kihira, who landed eight triple jumps in her free skate to “A Beautiful Storm,” posted a total score of 221.99 in the victory as she vaulted
from fifth place after the short program to win.
“As for the triple axel, I decided in the warm up whether I would do one or two,” Kihira was quoted as saying by the ISU website. “I had not had
enough practice at the main rink and I decided to play it safe in the program and did only one triple axel.
“In the practice rink this morning I tried as many triple axels as possible,” Kihira added. “In the six-minute warm up I felt I need to focus,
concentrate and just do it. The most important thing I learned from this competition is — no matter what happens never give up, keep going.”
“She was just really smart with her approach,” Ashley Wagner, commentating for NBC Sports Network, remarked about Kihira not choosing to do two
triple axels in her free skate. “She really just had to go out and get the job done. She did not need that second triple axel today.”
Wagner thinks Kihira will need her full arsenal, however, to win the big prize.
“Going into worlds, I think it will be important for her to be able to have all three axels there,” Wagner stated.
“The amount of ice she covers so quickly is really impressive,” Wagner added.
Three-time U.S. champion Michael Weiss, also on the NBCSN broadcast, was wowed by Kihira’s speed in her free skate.
“I noticed the speed going into the triple lutz/triple toe. Just huge speed,” Weiss said.
Joining Kihira on the podium was Mai Mihara, who placed third behind Tursynbaeva (207.46), with 207.12. The result for Mihara, who moved up from
eighth place after the short program, was a boost after a fourth-place finish at nationals.
Mihara put on a fantastic show in her free skate to “The Mission,” landing six triples and earning a standing ovation from the audience. She
received level fours on two of her spins and step sequence.
“After my mistakes on the jumps in the short, I got confused, I wanted to show a good performance to the audience,” Mihara stated. “I could not
sleep well last night. But a competition is just a competition. I must show my best performance every time, so I switched to a positive mind-set after the practice.”
Wagner noted Mihara’s steady showing in her free skate.
“She’s a reliable athlete,” Wagner commented. “She went out today and just ticked off one jump after the next, and everything was such high
quality that it pulled her right on through to the podium. It was a great night for her.”
Kaori Sakamoto, who was second after the short program, suffered a rare stumble in her free skate to “The Piano” and came in fourth at 206.79.
She singled a planned double axel at the start of a three-combination jump and didn’t do the other two, resulting in a big loss of points.
The good news is that Sakamoto has several weeks to get it back together before the worlds.
Uno establishes new record
Uno captured the men’s title for the first time on his fifth try at the Four Continents. Most amazing is the fact that beginning in 2015, Uno
placed in order, fifth, fourth, third and second, before triumphing in Anaheim on Saturday.
The Olympic and world silver medalist was in fourth place after the short program, but stormed back to win with an impressive performance in his
free skate to “Moonlight Sonata.” Uno (289.12) landed three quads and five clean triples to easily best Jin Boyang, who was second with 273.51.
Uno’s score in the free skate of 197.36 is the highest recorded under the new system instituted this season.
The victory in California has the Nagoya native thinking big. Very big.
“I don’t want to be caught up with rankings, but I am very happy with how I did with the program and to score first place,” Uno commented. “It
was my first big medal at the senior level. For worlds, I want to practice more and win the world title.”
Hiwatashi earns plaudits
American Tomoki Hiwatashi, who was fourth at the U.S. nationals last month, finished eighth but was happy with his effort. His free skate to
“Fate of the Gods” brought him a standing ovation from the crowd.
One of Hiwatashi’s favorite moves is a Russian split, which goes all the way back to the days of the legendary Dick Button, and always earns a
big roar from the fans.
“I think I skated great!” Hiwatashi wrote in an email to Ice Time on Sunday night. “It was the best performance I’ve done this season and I’m
glad I was able to do this program at the Four Continents. My goal for world juniors is to just try and skate like what I did at this competition.”
Hiwatashi is a busy man these days. With the Four Continents concluded, he heads next to a U.S. junior training camp, before going to Zagreb for
the world junior championships early in March where he will compete against Shimada.
Miyahara cruises to victory
Miyahara traveled to Oberstdorf, Germany, for the Bavarian Open and topped a mediocre field. Miyahara, who was second after the short program
behind compatriot Yuna Aoki, claimed the title with a less than stellar free skate to “Invierno Porteno.”
Miyahara scored 204.56 for the victory, but two-footed the landing on her opening triple salchow and under-rotated a double loop at the end of a
three- combo jump, but still beat Aoki, who placed second with 182.90.
Shimada takes senior crown
Shimada, who made the short trip from his training base in Champery, Switzerland, for the competition, captured the title in his senior
international debut with a tally of 210.80 also against a less than stellar lineup.
The 17-year-old landed his opening quad toe loop/triple toe loop combo in his free skate to “Winter in Buenos Aires,” but fell on his next jump
(a triple axel).
Canada’s Conrad Orzel (200.51) was second, while Shimada’s compatriot Yuto Kishina (185.88) came in fourth.
Meanwhile, Yuna Shiraiwa prevailed in one of the two junior women’s events in Oberstdorf. Shiraiwa (188.45) was there to earn a qualifying score
ahead of the world juniors in Croatia.
Wakana Naganawa, who was sixth at the Japan Junior Championships in November, came in second behind South Korea’s Young You in the other junior
women’s competition. Young’s winning mark was 195.50, while Naganawa recorded 165.27
Hanyu nominated for award
Yuzuru Hanyu’s recovery from injury to win his second straight Olympic gold medal at the Pyeongchang Games last February has earned him a
nomination for the Laureus Comeback of the Year award.
The 24-year-old superstar is one of six nominees for the honor along with Tiger Woods, skier Lindsey Vonn, snowboarders Mark McMorris and Bibian
Mentel- Spee, and wrestler Vinesh Phogat. The winner will be announced on Feb. 18 at a gala ceremony in Monte Carlo, Monaco.
